Industry Forecasts Vista Sales of a Half-Billion

If all goes well, Vista will shatter all previous sales records.
I pulled the following bullet points from a Microsoft Presentation.
(See image below. Presentation video is here but need to fast forward to 3:10:15 position.)

Opportunity to be the fastest adopted OS

  – Analysts forecast greater than 475 million PCs in first 24 months

  – Upgradeable installed base ~200 million PCs

  – Windows Vista/Office 12 spark Enterprise refresh cycle

If you do the math and break it down by monthly sales, it’s easy to see that this represents a conservative 20% increase in sales.

Microsoft normally sells to 200 million PCs per year which is 16.5 million per month.
As per above, the expected Monthly Sales of Vista is 19.8 million as follows.
  New Vista:   11.5 million (60%) – 275 million divided by 24 months
  Upgrade:      8.3 million (40%) – 200 million divided by 24 months

  Total:         19.8 million
The increase from 16.5 to 19.8 million is 3.3 million which is a 20% sales increase. I believe that we will see a 35% sales boost but that’s a topic for another day.
The Vista/Office 12 combo has much potential. I’m itching to see the "refresh Enterprise cycle" sales forecast numbers. I don’t think anyone is ready to publicly release any numbers yet.
The sales forecast gets more interesting when you consider the many versions of Vista in the works. I see a possibility of 17 as follows.
1. Vista Pro  32-bit
2. Vista Home 32-bit
3. Vista Media Center 32-bit
4. Vista Tablet Edition 32-bit
5. Vista Pro  64-bit
6. Vista Home 64-bit
7. Vista Media Center 64-bit
8. Vista Tablet Edition 64-bit
9. Vista Server 32-bit
10. Vista Server Enterprise Edition 32-bit
11. Vista Server Cluster Edition 32-bit
12. Vista Server 64-bit
13. Vista Server Enterprise Edition 64-bit
14. Vista Server Cluster Edition 64-bit

15. Vista Server – Itanium
16. Vista Server Enterprise Edition – Itanium
17. Vista Server Cluster Edition – Itanium
Do you believe that Microsoft will sell more 64-bit versions over the 24 months?
Please postback your thoughts.


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